Herman Mashaba’s indication that he may return to the Johannesburg mayoral race has immediately altered the political calculus ahead of the next local government elections. While no formal announcement has yet been made, his message is deliberate and unambiguous: he believes Johannesburg has deteriorated since his departure and that his work in the city was cut short.
This is not merely about personal ambition. Mashaba’s potential return raises broader questions about governance, political accountability, and whether Johannesburg voters are willing to revisit a leadership style that was decisive, controversial, and sharply polarising.
A Return Framed as “Unfinished Business”
Mashaba served as Johannesburg mayor from 2016 to 2019 under the Democratic Alliance before resigning following internal party conflicts. Since then, the city has experienced near-constant political instability, fragile coalitions, and worsening service delivery outcomes.
By framing his possible comeback as “unfinished business,” Mashaba is implicitly arguing that Johannesburg’s decline validates his leadership approach. He is positioning himself not as a newcomer with promises, but as a former mayor returning to correct what he sees as regression.
For a city struggling with crumbling infrastructure, failing utilities, and administrative paralysis, that framing may find traction among voters who are increasingly impatient with experimentation and coalition fragility.
Corruption as the Central Campaign Message
Mashaba has warned that corrupt officials would be “sent packing” should he return as mayor under the ActionSA banner. This message is likely to resonate strongly in Johannesburg, where repeated corruption investigations have yielded few visible consequences.
Municipal governance in the city has been characterised by suspended officials, stalled disciplinary processes, and a revolving door of acting appointments. Mashaba’s hard-line rhetoric signals an intention to centralise authority and move quickly against perceived wrongdoing — a leadership style that appeals to voters tired of bureaucratic inertia.
However, the effectiveness of such an approach would depend on institutional capacity and legal precision, not just political will.
Immigration Policy: A Familiar and Divisive Fault Line
Perhaps the most contentious aspect of Mashaba’s possible campaign is his renewed emphasis on undocumented foreign nationals. During his previous term, his administration aggressively targeted inner-city buildings and informal businesses linked to undocumented migrants, attracting sharp criticism from human rights organisations.
Mashaba remains unapologetic. He argues that enforcing immigration law is necessary to protect township and informal economies and that failure to do so fuels lawlessness and unfair competition.
This stance continues to divide opinion. For some residents, particularly in poorer communities, it reflects a long-ignored reality. For others, it raises concerns about constitutional rights, social cohesion, and selective enforcement.
Politically, however, it is a message that clearly differentiates Mashaba from both the ANC and DA — and one that ActionSA has consistently leaned into.
Why Metros Matter More Than National Coalitions
Mashaba has also dismissed participation in the Government of National Unity, arguing that real power lies in metropolitan governance rather than national coalition politics. His focus on Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni reflects a strategic calculation: these metros are economic hubs, and their performance directly affects jobs, investment and service delivery.
Control of Johannesburg, in particular, offers more tangible authority than participation in a fragmented national government. This metro-centric strategy may appeal to voters who see national politics as increasingly disconnected from daily realities.
What This Means for the Joburg Mayoral Race
Mashaba’s possible return complicates an already crowded and uncertain mayoral contest. He brings name recognition, a defined track record, and a clear ideological posture — advantages few contenders possess.
At the same time, his leadership style is not without risk. Johannesburg today is more fragmented, more legally constrained, and more politically volatile than it was during his first term. Governing effectively would require not only firmness, but coalition management and administrative depth.
As ActionSA prepares to announce its mayoral candidates before the end of February, Johannesburg voters are being asked to consider a familiar figure in an unfamiliar political environment.
Mashaba’s return would not simply be a comeback — it would be a referendum on whether Johannesburg wants a second attempt at hard-edged leadership, or a different path altogether.